My 2012 Travel And Technology Predictions
When we were looking back at your and my travel predictions for 2011 we were mostly on the money with our guesses. Not to sell our prophecies short, but we had a lot of help from the momentum of the trends we saw building in 2010. This year though, things are different. There’s uncertainty in the air – the kind that often leads to opportunity.
As for who picks up those favorable morsels, let’s have to look into my crystal iPad and see what the future may have in store for the present.
Airline Fees Drop And Disappear (Yay!) But Ticket Prices Go Up (Boo)
First of all, don’t get completely crazy and run off with the title – some airlines will drop minor fees throughout the coming year. They’ll do it in such a way that makes it seem like you’re saving but don’t forget airlines follow the Ferengi Rule of Acquisition, “once you have their money, never give it back.” Drink fees for example may go away with some baggage fees reduced, but watch those airfares creep up to compensate. [ED: I wrote this article before this news came out but I'll take it as a good omen for my predictions.]
Americans saw about a 6% increase in prices last year around peak travel times even though more people are now flying than ever. The problem is a combination of rising fuel costs, the use of online aggregators (e.g. Kayak), and prices that don’t reflect the real price of flying through the air in a heavy metal tube. So this year you’ll go (a bit) closer back to the golden days when there weren’t luggage fees or 8 dollar cans of Coke but instead plane tickets that cost 5-8% more.
Tablets Are Going To Kill The Kindle (Fire And All)
I’m a big fan of the smaller 7-inch tablet variety, especially the Nook Tablet and not-so-much the hastily-put-together Kindle Fire; but they’ve really paved the way for their own demise. I can’t see either device dominating that space in the current market. Those devices can’t move up into the larger screen, more expensive/versatile market where iPads and Samsung Galaxy 10.1s hang out. But the big boys can and will come down to bully the current 7-inch tablets off the digital playground.
Now that improved displays optimal for reading (nearly-at paper resolution) are falling in price, you’ll start to see iPads (as rumored) with retina-displays and watch the current iPad 2s drop about $100 (also rumored). One thing that’s definitely not going away are the smaller form tablets like the Nook and Kindle Fire, but they’re now occupying an ecological niche on an island just waiting for some feral 7-inch iPad mini-cats to be dropped off to wipe them out.
A Serious Skype Rival Emerges
The ever-useful Skype is one of several free programs you shouldn’t travel without. So while they’ve added 3-way video calls to the Mac (finally) and a few other features to the video chat client everyone loves (me included) I can’t help but feel that entire genre of software has been static too long. You might be thinking, “well, what more could they do?,” and well, I’ve got my hunches someone or some company is going to answer that question this year.
Countries On The Rise: Ruckus In The Caucus(es)
As I noted last week, Turkey has seen a healthy jump in tourism over the last year, aided by travelers scared off by the Arab Spring. Turkey this year will follow a trend that’s very common in national tourism – start cheap, people visit > get more expensive add more tourist offerings > cheaper bordering countries become new “low-cost” alternatives. (Think Thailand compared to Laos or Cambodia.) Istanbul is already in the expensive phase nearly all year round now – not without good reason – but people are going to begin discovering alternatives in the region during 2012.
The Eurovision contest in May might draw in some interest in Azerbaijan with both nearby Armenia and to a lesser extent Georgia seeing indirect spillover from Turkey’s tourism boom. I’ll stretch my prediction to include Iran as well. Finally, to get specific – Oman will see a 5-6% increase in tourism, Colombia 12%, and Chile 8%.
Dogs In The Skies (Yes, Cats Too)
As Amy mentioned in her prediction last year, there will be more restaurants, hotels, and generally pet-friendly options on the ground. In the skies…well, not-so-much though I’ll disagree a bit on this one. There won’t be any better options (pets not in the cabin are basically treated like cargo) but more people will take to the skies with their pets. (If you happen to be one of them check out The Ultimate Guide To Traveling With Your Pets or these 5 great pet travel sites.)
I would hope that more pets flying would cause the airlines to get creative with their offerings but since bankruptcy hasn’t done that I think we’re out of luck for 2012.
More Bloggers, Less Traveling
Wow, wow, wow, there are about a zillion travel blogs online now. Many are dead zombies, left quiet after their creators have finished a one-year RTW. Many more are born every day as travel journals or money-making hopefuls. The travel blog market though, generally, has become a static factory churning out top 10 things to do in Paris posts and photos of the day. This all said, the travel blogosphere is new and uncertain – like I said before – that’s an environment ripe with opportunity for something unique. You’ll see that this year my crystal iPad says (or this bottle of Jack Daniels, sometimes they sound alike.)
Without getting too deep into the world of blogging you’ll see many more bloggers slow down their travel pace. That will lead to an improvement of the quality of what they produce, whether it’s writing, photography, or video. I’ll also predict independent travel blogs will see some very strong competition from a large outside force.
Where Do You See 2012 Going?
End of the world? The year we finally find out the pyramids were built by aliens? Do we discover time travel is possible from a visitor who arrives from the future?
I’m ready to hear your travel predictions for 2012 large and small in the comments below. We’ll meet up here again in, say, a year from now to find out how we did. Taking bets optional.
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I Just picked up a 7inch Android tablet yesterday, I agree its a really nice size for mobility and its a much more manageable size than the iPad.
It’s for that exact reason I think dedicated eReaders are doomed in the long run.
I treat my eReader as a different device though but thats just because i get along with E-ink so well. Couldn’t read a book on my android as well, my eyes get tired too quick.
I’m not so good with predictions, luck always seems to be on the other side haha. Maybe I need one of those crystal Jack Daniels bottles to help me predicting lol.
But I’d like to comment on some of what you said.
Firstly it’s one of the biggest mistakes countries/governments/communities do is starting cheap and the getting more expensive when people start visiting more. I witnessed this first hand on a smaller scale, when Sharm el Sheikh became all touristy/expensive, and now the neighboring city of Dahab is booming (ofcourse all before the revolution, now non is expensive nor full of tourists haha)
Secondly, No luggage fees or 8 dollar coke cans? that would be amazing!! My friend just paid around 60 dollars for extra luggage. Damn thats too much!!
Last but not least, certainly 2012 will be the year when we finally learn that aliens have built the pyramids! How will we know about that? aliens will probably just come back and do a big party in Giza celebrating the -i dunno how much- birthday of the Sphinx. And he’ll be dancing among them
Maybe it’s one of those things where you predict what you think won’t happen, so then it does. But if then maybe your predictions work like that so they should be what you think will happen because…ok, I’m getting into jokes that are almost too nerdy for myself
It’s hard to fight the trend, more people visiting is almost certain to increase prices. Once you get that name for being more or less expensive though it sticks and can hurt a place when things change drastically like in Egypt.
I’m with you though and jumping on the aliens-created-the-pyramids-train in 2012!!
I hope your prediction for a “very strong competition from a large outside force” won’t be a death knell for us independent bloggers.
I hope not either though I think some may make out very well because of it.
I want to know what the competition of travel bloggers by a strong outside force is!!! Tell us please, I need to prepare for my doom.
haha, maybe in the few months
Though it seems a real possibility as one is testing the waters right now (and have been for the last few months).
Barbara, I think that, like all fortune tellers, that phrase is way too ambiguous!!! Be specific, Anil!! or at least a bit more specific! Who/what is this “large outside force” ?
I want to but will hold off – not that I have any inside information – just a good hunch. That outside force right now is looking for the right niche in travel and weighing whether or not there’s enough audience and income for the angle they’re leaning toward.
and the smartphones are getting more powerful too, just saw a prototype of lenovo with intel atom in some tech websites…
i also notice that travel bloggers who have started early and still active nowadays are branching out to some other activities… a lot have written (and selling) their own ebooks, some are venturing into consultancy and speaking engagements and some are building more and more websites
The blog is a good platform I think for many good ventures. I think this year many though will be weeded out due to lack of quality, time investment, or just bad luck. Hoping though the crystal iPad is kind to all of us
I hope the Kindle doesn’t die. I’m just starting to adopt that technology! Happy 2012 to you and your critters!
I don’t think they’ll go anywhere yet – but definitely hard to go back to paper once you make the switch
Happy 2012 to you too!
I’m not good with predictions but I’ll be watching to see how yours turn out. Although I hate to see air fare prices rise, doing away with all the extra fees would be appreciated by this traveler.
So, an outside force? Do tell.
That outside force is on the fence, stalking the playing field I believe. Like a good future prediction, I’m keeping it vague for now!
I think we’ll see a major push in innovation, especially apps for tablets, and in no small part becauce OTAs, who in the past have seen startups trying to access their information as competitors, are starting to change their mind. Expedia is leading the way, having rolled out their API early last year.
Interesting; any specific app revolutions you think we’ll see?
I’m hoping that LOF, aka “Large Outside Force” will be in need to a specialist in books that inspire travel!!
Here’s hoping a lot of us will be LOF-fing all the way to the bank.