Comments on: Travel Boom Will Hit Cuba 5 Years After Castro Resignation

By: Anil Polat

Anil Polat — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 20:01:47 +0000

Thanks for the input Julia – I agree, once the embargo is lifted the cruise lines will move in. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re already planning routes, etc. in anticipation.

I think also that Raul will not be able to have the hold or force that Fidel was able to. I had not adequately considered the prospect of civil unrest or armed revolt — that could set things back a very long time.

That’s why I think it’s in the US’ best interest to lift the embargo now, to give people the power and a stable, growing economy from which a free market can grow.

But…like you said, all just speculation at this point.

Great ideas, thanks!

By: Julia Rosien

Julia Rosien — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 19:52:32 +0000

Things could get very interesting very quickly in Cuba. Raul is a reformist and while he’s a shoo-in for the next leader, he is not Fidel Castro. If he decides to make change and that change isn’t welcomed *or* if he tries to uphold his older brother’s wishes but without the same force – civil unrest could be the future.

And civil unrest could be more damaging than communism ever was.

Personally, I don’t think much will happen for a few years. But once the embargoes are lifted, it will take months – certainly under a year for the cruise lines to move in and start capitalizing.

Of course, it’s all just speculation until something turns the tide: http://www.gogirlfriend.com/travel-news/castro-resignation-new-cruise-destination-7020

By: Anil Polat

Anil Polat — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 15:47:39 +0000

Thanks for the comments – I think that as long as Fidel is in the shadows, Raul will be very limited. I think that someone with the ego of Fidel wouldn’t step down unless things weren’t so good body or brain-wise. Just a bet though.

I agree that Fidel can and will control Raul as much as possible as long as possible.

Hopefully though I’m right sooner than later and we can take a trip to Havana!!

By: Deniz

Deniz — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 15:26:05 +0000

I for one really want to travel to Cuba. I am curious to see what state a US embargo and almost 50 year dictatorial regime has left it in. I am skeptical about Raul Castro’s possible actions, though. Would Fidel appoint his brother if he knew Raul was going to change things? Maybe I’m just being pessimistic or something. Very well-written post though, and very informative! It made me consider ideas that I probably wouldn’t have otherwise!