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A Look Back On foXnoMad’s Travel Predictions For 2009

At the beginning of last January I had a set of slightly gloomy predictions for 2009. Those included more changes bad for travel, including fees, crashes, and terror attacks. While the results of my predictions weren’t (thankfully) as gloomy as I predicted there was still quite a bit to frown upon.

Prediction #1: More Airline Fees, For Everything

Airlines would look to adding more fees to previously “free” services while adding on to existing ones I predicted. In large part I was correct as airline fees have gone up steadily throughout 2009 in what some might call an airline feeding frenzy. You can keep up with changing fees and find out how much your bags will cost the next time you fly using Luggage Limits.

colorful luggage

  • Verdict: Correct

Prediction #2: More Delays and Plane Crashes

The number of major plane crashes fell by 12 in 2009 according to Plane Crash Info. I had predicted an increase due to airline budget cuts and some high profile skimping of safety regulations. As far as delays there wasn’t a major change from 2008 on the whole but major hubs experiences increases. Overall delays are likely to increase as more people start flying again (it was a slow year for air travel).

man sleeping in airport

  • Verdicts: Partially Wrong and Wrong

Prediction #3: Increased Terror Attacks On Alternate Mode Of Travel (i.e. Not Airplanes)

It’s difficult to find statistics on this prediction but discounting war zones and unstable areas around the world, the overall risk of any terrorist attack on any mode of transportation is extraordinarily small. The entire number of terrorist attacks worldwide dropped from 327 in 2008 to 273 in 2009 according to the very unofficial Wikipedia list of terrorist incidents.

terrorism response sign

  • Verdict: (Thankfully) Wrong

Prediction #4: Failure Of The US Airlines

The US major air carriers have made it through 2009 without any bankruptcies but lost 11 billion dollars in the process. It’s not looking any better in 2010 either, as they are projected to lose another 5.6 billion. The industry can’t continue like this so we’ll see what 2010 brings. Until then, let’s chalk this up as a wrong prediction.

bankrupt

  • Verdict: Wrong (Sort Of)

Prediction #5: Europe Will Be Cool Again

Tourists spending money in the EU during the first part of 2009 was down by about 7% compared to the same time a year earlier. Statistics aren’t yet available for the rest of 2009, but it seems many travelers aren’t waiting for the Eurozone nations to get cheaper. Many are headed to Asia and some of the best places to travel on a weak dollar.

tourists in europe

  • Verdict: Wrong

Prediction #6: Unlikely Destinations Will Make a Rise

My one optimistic prediction was that increasing stability and the continued development of tourism industries in traditionally unpopular destinations would result in more travelers visiting places like Iran, North Korea, and Libya. While tourism has remained steady to North Korea and Libya, it’s fallen considerably in Iran over the last year.

blue arrow up

  • Verdict: Wrong

Coming Up In 2010

It seems as though my travel predictions for 2008 were much better looking back on them but despite my poor performance this time around I’ll share some of my more optimistic predictions for 2010 next Monday. While my predictions were off this year or some are possibly delayed, I think travel in 2010 is set to be a good year for travelers.

[photos by: nhanusek, MoToMo, neonbubble, alles-schlumpf, SoStark, Leo Reynolds]

Reconfiguring Your Views On Airport Security

There’s been a lot of news and reaction to last week’s attempted bombing of a US-bound Northwest flight from Amsterdam to Detroit. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has been quick to implement a series of vague and ineffective security countermeasures. These include prohibiting passengers from having anything in their laps for the last 60 minutes of international flights to the US.

reconfiguring your views on airport security

Having worked as a security expert for years and still doing so part-time, I’m of the opinion that these security measures – and the overall approach of the TSA – is flawed. As frequent fliers and travelers it’s important to reconfigure your views on airport security to look at the larger system in play, worry less about flying, and realize the impact it has on the economy of travel.

The Airport Is The Last, Not First Line Of Defense

It’s attractive to look at airport security and imagine all of the action-movie terrorist schemes that could cause a major catastrophe on an airplane. Except that airport security is the last line of defense. Coordinated terrorist plots take planning, communication, and the acquisition of weapons and other materials. These are where bad guys are foiled, not at the airport.

  • Good investigation, monitoring, and police work are the most effective ways to prevent terror events. When these systems fail, airport security can do little to prevent an attack. Consider September 11th and this latest attack by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, both preventable but weren’t due to flaws with basic police work.

tsa spot checkCatching The Crazy and The Stupid

Airport security is designed to catch the crazy and the stupid, as well as ladies who might overthrow an airplane with more than 3 ounces of perfume. While Abdulmutallab was able to sneak powdered explosives on board according to initial reports, the amount of explosives would be unlikely to take down an airliner.

  • The single most important security countermeasure which helped prevent this latest attack (and shoe bomber Richard Reid) from being successful was the reaction of the crew and other passengers. They reacted quickly to subdue both attempted terror events preventing them from igniting the explosives.

Sophisticated attacks take a great deal of planning, communication, and don’t happen out of the blue. Airport security isn’t designed to thwart well-coordinated terrorist attack attempts, that’s the job of other agencies. Airport security only catches the dumb, stupid, and lone attacker.

It Has No End

no endSolid investigative work to prevent attacks in the planning stages is the where more security funding should be spent because the TSA brand of reacting to each specific threat has no end. After an attempted shoe bombing the TSA has people taking off shoes, and after the ‘liquid bombers‘ were caught (by investigators, not airport security), liquids more than an arbitrary 3 ounces were banned (unless it’s contact lens solution, then you can bring up to 24 ounces). Matches and lighters were also banned briefly, among other common travel items.

The problem is that these security measures are trying to prevent previous methods of attack, all of which were unsuccessful for three reasons.

  1. The reaction of the crew and other passengers.
  2. Investigation and monitoring during the planning stages (not the final stage) of the terror plot.
  3. Locked cockpit doors.
  4. (Additionally) It also hasn’t been shown that these attacks are feasible and that these security measures have been effective.

Someone can still go on a shooting rampage at an airport security checkpoint, try to open a door on an airplane, or come up with another way to damage an airplane in-flight. Ban shoes, terrorists will use liquids; ban those and they’ll use something else. Security can’t (easily) prevent or predict a lone attacker but good police work can catch coordinated attacks well before they can ever be executed.

Why You Should Care

lady with mouth tiedAside from the inconvenience of airport security and not being able to read or leave your seat upon descent all of these measures are costly and questionably effective. What if the next terror attack attempt happens in the second hour of flight, does that mean more time sitting and not doing anything in hour 2? Security should be both cost effective and practical. How about the day someone tries to blowup a laptop or book and those are banned from flights. Imagine the impact on business travel – and the airlines who are already struggling.

You can voice your concerns to your politicians, no matter where you are to your government and even interact with the TSA via their blog. Security should be effective and to do so airport security needs to stop watching movies and start getting down to the boring basics. Crippling the airline industry, being a detriment to business travel, and keeping people in fear only provides the terrorists with their ultimate goal – to terrorize the innocent.

[photos by: alist, steuben, Arenamontanus, mudkat]

Some Popular Recent Posts To Click If You’re On Holiday

clicking mouseMany of you who’ve been reading for some time know that I tend not to post on major holidays in the US (although I’m not there at the moment). That’s because many of you aren’t online and it’s one of the smart breaks to take from travel blogging. For those of you who are online today though, I’d like to point you towards some posts here on foXnoMad and my other travel blogs you might have missed recently.

I hope you enjoy these links and will have a new post come Monday.

[photo by: (davide)]

What Gadgets Can You Not Travel Without? [RESPONSES]

mobile officeIt seems as though many of you are traveling with at least 2-3 travel gadgets that you just can’t hit the road without. As for me I probably travel more ‘digitally heavy’ than most but then again, based on these 14 responses to what gadgets can you not travel without, I’m not so sure.

  • Voltage adapters: 2
  • Rechargable batteries: 2
  • Laptop: 8
  • Camera: 9
  • Mobile phone: 3
  • Music speakers: 1
  • External drives: 4
  • iPod: 2
  • RennyBA’s Terella: “I just need my laptop and mobile phone – then (with WiFi), I’m always on, are able to do my work, connect with people and take pics.”
  • ATravelAroundTheWorld: “I am a full time traveler, for me is essential to always have with me an international plug adapter, 4 spare rechargeable batteries (you never know), of course laptop, photo camera, mobile phone,my fishing rod and some clothes.”
  • AirTreks Nico: “I also like to travel with a set of mini-speakers. Gotta have some tunes to wake up to!”
  • flashpackersStephanie: “If I don’t see things through my camera lens I feel like I haven’t seen them at all.”
  • Dan: “I take my netbook (Samsung NC10), camera and spare batteries everywhere.”
  • Mark H: “For me, it is only a camera but most trips are accompanied with a laptop as well.”
  • Priyank: “Camera and ASUS EEE, thats it!”
  • Nomadic Pinoy: “I don’t bring much gadgets as I try to travel light but my trip won’t be complete without my camera and Ipod.”
  • Sherry Ott: “I use an old ipod (no one wants to steal it) that is 80G – so I also use it as backup storage for my laptop. Plus – I keep my ‘best’ photography uploaded on it so that when someone wants to see it – I can easily whip out and show them my portfolio of work!”
  • Shannon: “I travel with a travel-sized power strip that folds up easy and gives me a few extra outlets in a hotel room.”
  • Nisha: “My digicam, universal plug adapter, 4 spare rechargeable batteries, my mobile phone, Pen drive.”

Personally I always carry a laptop, voltage adapters, iPod touch, and a host of USB, ethernet, and other cables. Since my office travels with me I bring as much of it as I can because it’s so hard to predict what will be available at the next destination. I bring these items because I work from the road (yes, and I love technology) but what are some of the reasons you travel with gadgets?

[photos by: MacDavid Pro, Flashpacking Life]

7 Reasons Why You Can And Should Visit Iceland In The Winter

The name Iceland is very deceptive and makes the geologically active island sound completely intolerable, especially in the middle of winter. There are plenty of good reasons to visit Iceland at anytime of the year since it’s a newer member on the list of best places to travel on a weak dollar but it also has plenty of other advantages in December, January, and February.

1. It’s Not That Cold

Iceland was named by Norwegian Floki Vilgeroarson after he encountered quite a bit of ice when he originally landed in the north. Yet due to the warm Gulf Stream current, the average temperatures in December stay around 0C (32F) and don’t hover more than about 2-3 degrees warmer or colder. In compassion, that’s close to low temperatures in New York or Amsterdam at the same time of year.

crater in iceland

2. Fewer Crowds

The number of tourists visiting Iceland drops in half during the winter months. Famous sites like the Blue Lagoon only have a handful of visitors, hostels are quieter, and you can easily book almost any bus or tour at the very last minute since they don’t fill up this time of year. Reykjavik though is still full of locals (who are very friendly) and you’ll have enough hostel mates to not feel lonely.

reykjavik at dusk

3. Prices Drop

Many of the tour operators drop their prices in December, January, and February to try and earn the business of the fewer travelers who do happen to be in town. With the economy of Iceland recovering from their recent economic collapse and prices returning to levels not seen in a decade, you can still find good deals in the winter months.

iceland kroner

4. Longer Nights Means More Nightlife

Icelanders like to party and having about 18 hours of darkness gives them plenty of opportunity do it. The nightlife is active at all times of the year, with peaks in late December as schools and university lets out for the semester. Walk down Laugavegur street in the capital city at 530am and you’ll see people littered in the streets when the bars begin to close. If that’s your sort of thing you’ll have lots of fun in Reykjavik.

partying in reykjavik

5. The Northern Lights

You can easily take night trips from Reykjavik up north to catch a glimpse of the aurora borealis, one of the best ways to catch extraterrestrial activity on Earth. It’s hit or miss so but you can increase your chances of seeing a spectacular night display by going on a completely clear evening. No matter what though, you’ll see one of the best starry skies imaginable.

northern lights in iceland

6. Long Sunrises and Sunsets

The sun doesn’t really rise to far above the horizon in Iceland during this time of year but since it hovers in the sky it makes for great twilight lighting that lasts much longer than in lower latitudes. It makes for some excellent photo opportunities and is an ideal light to improve on your decent travel photos.

sunset in iceland

7. You Can Still Do Most Everything

People often imagine that Iceland grinds to a halt in the winter but for travelers most of the summer travel options are still available. You can’t go whale watching (on most days) for example, but you can climb glaciers, visit a volcano, go skiing, check out the holograms at Reykjavik City Museum (thanks for the tip J Travel Authority), and countless other things.

street scene in iceland

Iceland is quite a varied landscape and there is plenty to do as well as pick and chose from while you’re there. The winter doesn’t prevent you from missing much and even if the winter reduced your options in half, you’d have your hands full trying to decide what to do next. As for the longer nights, you’re likely to adapt more quickly than you think and can try shifting your body clock with peanuts to make it a smooth adjustment.

[photos by: Diego Cupolo, Stuck In Customs, James Cridland, passetti, Tom Olliver, Deivis, [email protected]]

About Anil Polat

foxnomad aboutHi, I'm Anil. foXnoMad is where I combine travel and tech to help you travel smarter. I'm on a journey to every country in the world and you're invited to join the adventure! Read More

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